Trump Tariffs Hit Consumer Prices
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tariffs are taxes, and they do raise prices on the goods on which they’re applied. Those price increases may be a one-time event, depending on the tariff and how supply-chains are affected. But Americans who experience those rising prices will still notice the decline in their purchasing power.
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Imports make up only 11% of U.S. consumer spending, but domestic producers will also take advantage of the tariffs to raise prices. This is what happened after Mr. Trump slapped tariffs on washing machines in his first term. While imports fell by a third in the year after the tariffs took effect, prices rose 12% for washers and dryers.
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The Trump team also overlooks that tariff effects will vary by industry and the ability of consumers and business to substitute for lower-cost alternatives. The fact that the June report doesn’t show inflation in some tariffed goods like autos doesn’t mean prices won’t increase. Tariffs could have a long and variable lag, to adapt Milton Friedman’s famous line about monetary policy.
재화의 성격에 따라서 관세의 영향이 다를 수 있지만, 전반적으로 구매력이 하락할 수밖에 없다는 WSJ 사설.
특히 관세부과 이후 미국 내에서 생산량을 바로 늘릴 수 있는 재화가 아닌 경우에 관세부과로 인한 가격상승이 클 것인데, 실제로 신선 과일 및 채소가 그러했음(Slapping tariffs on cherries from Chile and bananas from Guatemala won’t cause more of them to be grown stateside, especially when farmers can’t find workers. Prices for coffee—almost all of which is imported—rose 2.2%.).
또한 알루미늄과 같은 원자재나 중간재에 대한 관세가 부과될 경우 가격 상승은 더 클 수 있을 것. 왜냐하면 이를 용인할 시에는 오히려 이들을 투입해서 최종재를 생산하는 생산자의 이윤이 감소하기 때문. 경사관세같은 체계는 고려하지 않음.
참고: 트럼프 2기 관세 정리된 위키